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How to flatten the Delco COVID-19 curve

One of the biggest buzz phrases in coronavirus lingo is ‘flattening the curve.’ Here’s my way of explaining what the curve is and the efforts to flatten it.
Let’s start with the easy part; how to flatten the curve.
The emergency declarations, stay at home edicts, wash you hands advice, avoid large crowd mantras, close the schools decisions, and work from home mandates all help to slow down humans passing the virus to other humans. If fewer people are in contact with one another there’s less of a chance of contracting the virus.
delco curve
Here’s how to interpret the Delaware County curve and why it’s so alarming.

  • From March 8 to March 16th there were 4 COVID-19 cases in Delco.
  • One day later, March 17th , that number doubled to 8 cases.
  • Three days later, March 19th, that number doubled again to 16 cases.
  • One day later, March 20th, that number more than doubled again to 34 cases.
  • Two days later, March 22nd, that number almost doubled again to 62 cases.
  • One day later, March 23, we’re at 84 cases.

When you plot these dates on the graph, the line is going straight up fast. Until you see the numbers stop climbing (flatten out), the pandemic is raging on.
Will we see 168 cases by Friday and 334 cases by Monday? If we do, will you be concerned? Are you concerned now?
Those are questions only you can answer.

2 replies on “How to flatten the Delco COVID-19 curve”

I am concerned now. Our view at the moment is best case, the peak is two weeks away. If Trump lifts restrictions at Easter, it’ll be at peak (or before peak) and would be the definition of throwing gas on the fire. I don’t think most people in Southeastern PA will heed his advice anyway, especially if the conclusion about where we are in relation to “peak virus” is more obvious in two weeks than it is now (i.e. curve still accelerating upward at an increasing rate).
On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 5:31 PM Chester Matters Blog wrote:
> SERoots posted: “One of the biggest buzz phrases in coronavirus lingo is > ‘flattening the curve.’ Here’s my way of explaining what the curve is and > the efforts to flatten it. Let’s start with the easy part; how to flatten > the curve. The emergency declarations, stay at ho” >

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‘We’ don’t seem to understand how actions taken today affect 2-weeks from now. Seeing folks react to a COVID-19 situation only after it becomes a situation is irresponsible.

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